Here's What American Job Creation Looked Like Under The Last 5 Presidents

Calculated Risk is a leading finance and economics blog written by Bill McBride

Last month I posted two graphs comparing changes in public and private sector payrolls during the Bush and Obama presidencies. Several readers asked if I could add Presidents Reagan and Clinton (I've also added the single term of President George H.W. Bush).

Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, so a better comparison might be to look at the percentage change, but this gives an overall view of employment changes.

The first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s).  President George H.W. Bush only served one term, and President Obama has just started his second term. 

Mr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble, and left during the bursting of the housing bubble.  Mr Obama (blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession.  There was also a significant recession in the early '80s right after Mr. Reagan (yellow) took office.

There was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (purple) term, and Mr Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession.

Calculated Risk

The employment recovery during Mr. G.W. Bush's first term was very sluggish, and private employment was down 946,000 jobs at the end of his first term.   At the end of Mr. Bush's second term, private employment was collapsing, and there were net 665,000 private sector jobs lost during Mr. Bush's two terms. 

Private sector employment increased slightly under President G.H.W. Bush, with 1,490,000 private sector jobs added.

Private sector employment increased by 20,864,000 under President Clinton and 14,688,000 under President Reagan.

There were only 1,933,000 more private sector jobs at the end of Mr. Obama's first term.  A few months into Mr. Obama's second term, there are now 2,582,000 more private sector jobs than when he took office.

A big difference between the presidencies has been public sector employment.  Note the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1990, 2000, and 2010. 

Calculated Risk

The public sector grew during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,748,000 jobs).

However the public sector has declined significantly since Mr. Obama took office (down 739,000 jobs). These job losses have mostly been at the state and local level, but they are still a significant drag on overall employment.

Looking forward, I expect the economy to continue to expand for the next few years, so I don't expect a sharp decline in employment as happened at the end of Mr. Bush's 2nd term (In 2005 and 2006 I was warning of a coming recession due to the bursting of the housing bubble).

A big question is when the public sector layoffs will end.  It appears the cutbacks are mostly over at the state and local levels, but there are ongoing cutbacks at the Federal level.

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The Grad Student Who Busted Reinhart And Rogoff Explains How Open They Really Were With Their Data

Thomas Herndon

This weekend, economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart dropped a bomb on the economics world in the form of a big open letter to Paul Krugman, blasting him for his uncivil and nasty tone in the debate over recent years.

Remember, Rogoff and Reinhart were the economists whose work showed that growth for nations dropped off notably once debt to GDP crossed the 90% threshold. This result was shown to be flawed by UMass Amherst grad student Thomas Herndon, who discovered an Excel flaw in their work.

In their open letter, Rogoff and Reinhart dispute the popular notion that they were keeping their data secret.

They write:

The accusation in the New York Review of Books is a sloppy neglect on your part to check the facts before charging us with a serious academic ethical infraction.  You had already implicitly endorsed this from your perch at the New York Times by posting a link to a program that treated the misstatement as fact.

Fortunately, the "Wayback Machine" crawls the Internet and periodically makes wholesale copies of web pages. The debt/GDP database was first archived in October 2010 from Carmen's University of Maryland webpage.  The data migrated to ReinhartandRogoff.com in March 2011.  There it sits with our other data, on inflation, crises dates, and exchange rates.  These data are regularly sought and found for those doing research who care to look. The greater disclosure of debt data from official institutions is testament to this.  The IMF began to construct historical public debt data only after we had provided a roadmap in the list of our detailed references in a 2009 book (and before that in a 2008 working paper) that explained how we had unearthed the data. 

Our interaction with scholars and practitioners working on real world questions in our field is ongoing, and our doors remain open. So to accuse us of not sharing our data is an unfounded attack on our academic and personal integrity.

Remember, part of the Thomas Herndon story is that he couldn't replicate Rogoff and Reinhart's result (that debt dropped off precipitously at 90% debt-to-GDP) and then discovered a flaw only once Carmen Reinhart sent him a copy of their Excel document, at which point he noticed a flaw.

Via email, we asked Herndon his precise take on what happened, and what he makes of their claim that their data was always made available.

Long-story short, Herndon agrees that they did post links to their data sources, but never the spreadsheet, and that it was the spreadsheet that allowed the flaw to be discovered.

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The Weekend Is Over, And The Japanese Market Is Getting Clobbered

The weekend is over, and trading has officially whirred to life in Asia.

The big market that everyone's watching is obviously Japan, which crashed 7% on Thursday, before coming back modestly in Friday trading.

That comeback, however, faded as Nikkei futures traded throughout the day, and now the Nikkei cash market is catching up.

The Nikkei is currently off 2.8%, and USDJPY is below 102.

Nikkei.com

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Ben Bernanke Has One More Incredibly Powerful Policy Tool That He Hasn't Used Yet

Also unsettling stock markets around the world last week was the big backup in government bond yields. In Japan, the 10-year yield has jumped from a record low of 0.45% on April 4, 2013 to 0.85% on Friday. It briefly touched 1.0% last Thursday. In the US, investors were spooked to see the 10-year yield back over 2% for the first time since March 15, 2013. It’s also back to the dividend yield of the S&P 500.

The rise in bond yields, particularly in Japan and the US, complicates life for all the central bankers who have been pushing the outer limits of QE. To keep us from going into the darkness, they have taken us to the brink of monetary policy's final frontier.

The positive interpretation is that bond investors have concluded that the central bankers will succeed in stimulating self-sustaining economic growth and in boosting inflation rates. If so, then the monetary authorities do need to provide a credible exit plan from QE that won’t push yields back up to levels that depress economic activity. Alternatively, central bankers are in a Catch 22 situation in which rising yields depress economic growth, forcing the continuation of QE or even more of it! What should they do?

What can they do? What will they do? When he was just a simple Fed governor, Ben Bernanke provided the answer in a remarkable speech on November 21, 2002 titled, “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here.” In it, he listed all the possible tools that central banks could use to avert deflation including ZIRP, QE, and even printing money. The major central banks have followed Bernanke’s advice except for actually running the printing presses, which is the ultimate final frontier of monetary policy.

However, other than printing money, there is still one tool mentioned by Bernanke that has not been used, i.e., pegging bond yields. Here is what he had to say on the subject: “A more direct method, which I personally prefer, would be for the Fed to begin announcing explicit ceilings for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt….”

Back then, he focused on doing so for the two-year note: “The Fed could enforce these interest-rate ceilings by committing to make unlimited purchases of securities up to two years from maturity at prices consistent with the targeted yields. If this program were successful, not only would yields on medium-term Treasury securities fall, but (because of links operating through expectations of future interest rates) yields on longer-term public and private debt (such as mortgages) would likely fall as well.”

Why not just go for it and peg the 10-year Treasury at 1.50% in the US and the 10-year JGB at 0.50%? This would be a variation on current QE programs that don’t specify any target levels for the yields of the bonds that are being purchased. That’s too bad since those yield pegs probably could have been achieved with much less buying of securities. Want proof of my assertion? Look at how ECB President Mario Draghi lowered yields in the peripheral euro zone bond markets simply by pledging to "do whatever it takes” to defend the euro. The ECB is the only major central bank that has fewer assets on its balance sheet than a year ago.

Today's Morning Briefing: The Final Frontier. (1) Into the darkness? (2) Five-year mission. (3) Central bank trekkies boldly go where no man has gone before. (4) The three scenarios again. (5) Escape velocity. (6) Debris field of weak PMIs. (7) Central banks flying into turbulent bond market. (8) Bernanke as Kirk. (9) Dudley more like Hamlet than Spock. (10) Cyclicals have come back in May, while defensive stocks have gone away. (11) “Star Trek Into Darkness” (+ +). (More for subscribers.)

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The 'Taper' And A 3-Day Losing Streak Have Everyone Wondering If We've Hit An Inflection Point

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"I'll have this tapered, my good man."

The U.S. took Monday off to observe Memorial Day.

This gave Americans time to think about the economy, which has been showing signs of slowing in Q2, and the stock market, which is just off of its all-time high.

Last week saw the stock market's first three-day losing streak of the year. 

It's worth noting this streak started when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested that the Fed could soon start to "taper" its quantitative easing (QE) program.

Has talk of the taper caused volatility to return to the markets?  Have we seen the top?

Top Stories

The Taper:  Currently, QE involves the Fed buying $85 billion worth of bonds each month in its effort to lower interest rates, stimulate lending activity, and boost the economy.  Many have argued that this has also caused bond investors to flee the bond market and head to the stock market.  With the economy showing signs of improvement, people think that it has become increasingly likely that the Fed will slow down its easy monetary policy by tapering its bond purchases.

On Wednesday, Ben Bernanke testified before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.  He tried to make the point that premature tightening, or tapering, of monetary policy would risk slowing or even ending the economic recovery. But he did say that the Fed could taper bond purchases in the next few meetings if the economic data supported it.

And according to the minutes from its recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, some FOMC members expressed a willingness to begin tapering as early as June.

Economic Calendar

Case Shiller Home Price Index (Tuesday): Economists estimate that the 20-city index climbed 1.0% month-over-month in March and 10.2% year-over-year.  "Our model projects that seasonally adjusted home prices rose by almost ½% during the reference period – the largest single-month gain in eight years," said Societe Generale's Brian Jones.  "Indeed, that forecast, if realized, would place the average selling price nationwide 10.6% above the level posted in March 2012, marking the largest 12-month advance since the period ended April 2006."Consumer Confidence (Tuesday): Economist estimate that this measure improved to 71.0 from 68.1 in April. "Stock market gains and a positive response to the April employment report are the main upside contributors," said Morgan Stanley's Vincent Reinhart.GDP (Thursday): Economist project that this second estimate of Q1 GDP was unchanged at 2.5%, with personal consumption being revised up to 3.3%. "[H]ousehold spending will likely be revised stronger and nonfarm inventories will likely be revised to subtract from growth—both suggesting more momentum in private final demand despite the softer headline figure," said UBS's Sam Coffin. Corporate profits probably fell for the first time since a year earlier but maintained their y/y growth pace.."Pending Home Sales (Thursday): Economists estimate that pending home sales climbed by 1.5% month-over-month and 12.6% year-over-year in April. "The rise in mortgage applications in April signals a likely increase in the pending home sales index," said UBS's Sam Coffin.
Personal Income and Spending (Friday): Economists estimate that income climbed by just 0.1% in April, while spending showed no growth. "Personal spending increased 0.2 percent in March, a moderation from February’s gain of 0.7 percent, but in line with the recent trend," said Wells Fargo's John Silvia. "We suspect trend growth will continue at 0.2 percent in April, as the economy continues to post moderate improvement."

Market Update

Even Wall Street's most bullish stock market strategists have been caught off guard by the strength of the bull market.

Most have revised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 upward.  Just this past week, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin cranked up his target to 1,750, making him the most bullish strategist on the Street.

Kostin published that call on Tuesday when the S&P closed at 1,669, and then proceeded to begin its three-day losing streak.

Will Kostin's call go down as one of the most ill-timed calls ever?  Surely, those who attribute the stock market's movements to the Fed will likely mark Wednesday's hawkish Fed appearance with a bearish turn in the market.

Watch Doreen Mogavero of Mogavero, Lee & Co. discuss the ongoing debate in the market from the New York Stock Exchange floor:

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